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2016 World Series: The tale of the tape between Indians, Cubs
In what might be one of the toughest battles of the World Series, managers Terry Francona and Joe Maddon will need to be perfect as not to outsmart their foe. Thearon W. Henderson, Elsa/Getty Images

2016 World Series: The tale of the tape between Indians, Cubs

The day is upon us where the two franchises with the longest World Series droughts of all-time will face off to settle the score and erase some painful history, for one side at least. The Chicago Cubs bring 108 years of World Series hunger to the table, while the Cleveland Indians will look to break a 67 year famine themselves.

But with all historical connotation set aside, it is also a matchup of the two most diverse teams in the game today. The Series that is set to see its first pitch tonight stands to make for a tremendous tug of war that will require all 50 players involved and both managers to play critical parts in both landing – and upholding – the Commissioner’s Trophy when November breaks next week.

Here is the tale of the tape between the two clubs, in the ever-so-close battle in the best of the American and National Leagues.

Catcher: Robert Perez vs. Miguel Montero/David Ross/Willson Contreras

The Cubs employ a three headed configuration behind the plate that is largely based on pitcher and matchup. David Ross is Jon Lester’s guy, so he’ll be behind the dish during Game 1. Montero has been in for most of Arrieta’s outings, and Contreras fits in elsewhere. As for offensive impact, as both a collective and individually, they are stronger than what the Indians’ offer behind the plate as well. Ross in particular could be valuable in a pinch, as he has gone 3-for-5 lifetime against Andrew Miller, of all people, with all three hits coming in the form of doubles.

For the Indians, Roberto Perez has carried full-time duties behind the plate since mid-August, and is much more of a defensive presence than an offensive one (.174 postseason avg). He is however an impressive pitch framer, has carried nearly a 1 dWAR since 2014 and does make the Indians staff better behind the plate.

Advantage: Cubs, in variety and pure impact overall.

First Base: Mike Napoli vs. Anthony Rizzo

Napoli has been one of the most pivotal bats in the game this year, leading the transformative performance of the Indians offense this season. Meanwhile, Rizzo is in the handful of best players in the game, and definitely at his position. He as capable of having a huge at bat, as he is at making a boundaries-defying play in the field. Rizzo is the finer all-around player, although Napoli’s World Series experience will be invaluable.

Advantage: Cubs (Slightly)

Second Base: Jason Kipnis vs. Javier Baez

Baez took home co-MVP honors in the NLCS, due to his continued hot hitting and clutch play. His offensive effort has helped carry the Cubs through a so-so offensive October and his stock headed into 2017 could cause the Cubs to revisit their everyday plans, in order to get him in the lineup regularly.

With that said, Kipnis is one of the best all-around players at the position in the game. Capable of making an impact via his speed, power and defense across one ninth inning frame, he is truly one of the most talent players in this series. He could be a tipping point in the balance of this series towards the Indians if he resumes his high level of play from the ALCS (.363 avg).

Advantage: Indians

Third Base: Jose Ramirez vs. Kris Bryant

This isn’t exactly fair to Ramirez, who was one of the most quietly productive players in all of baseball this year. He had 60 extra base hits and checked in both the top 10’s for average and stolen bases in the AL. He is better than most in head up comparisons, however this is not a typical matchup he’s in now.

Kris Bryant is a sensation. Last year’s NL Rookie of the Year is the favorite in the clubhouse for this season’s Most Valuable Player. He has carried over that production to the postseason, hitting .333 with five doubles, a home run and a .948 OPS. He’s the best player in the series and a pivot point every time he steps to the plate.

Advantage: Cubs (clearly)

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor vs. Addison Russell

The tightest matchup of all is between the 22-year-old shortstops on both sides, as each plays an irreplaceable role on their respective rosters, albeit in varying capacities. Russell is both a hammer and an ultra-athletic glove for the Cubs. He managed only one hit through his first seven playoff games, before turning it on raking out 6 over 13 at-bats in the three close-out wins for the Cubs, including a pair of home runs.

Conversely, Lindor has been the steadiest hitter throughout the playoffs for the Indians, leading them with a .323 average and has reached base in all but two games. He hit .301 on the year, while stealing 19 bases and hitting 15 homers, while playing Gold Glove caliber defense in his own right. Advantage: Indians, based purely on the consistency that Lindor has put forward to date this postseason.

Left Field: Coco Crisp/Brandon Guyer vs. Ben Zobrist

The Indians diversity is most evident in their outfield, where they employ a different look based on what is put before them on that day. Crisp has been a steady veteran presence, that has allowed Ramirez to stay at third and Rajai Davis to stay in center. He still has some legs to put to use around the bases, but leaves something to be desired in the arm strength department. Guyer has played well in spot duty throughout the year and draws left-handed matchups, as he hit .336 versus southpaws on the year. He’ll get the call whenever Jon Lester is on the mound.

On the other hand, the ever-affable Zobrist has found himself dubbed a left fielder in the postseason after spending most of the year at second base. He is one of the toughest outs in all of baseball at the plate, and won’t kill them defensively either. Having his switch-hitting bat in the lineup is vital to the Cubs late inning prowess.

Advantage: Cubs

Center Field: Rajai Davis/Tyler Naquin vs. Dexter Fowler 

The Indians make their most frequent platoon switch between the highly differing skill sets of Naquin and Davis. Davis is a speedster who led the AL in stolen bases this year, while the rookie Naquin hit 14 home runs in 116 games, while working to a .372 OBP. However, Naquin has struggled mightily in the postseason thus far, striking out nine times in 16 at-bats. Add in the fact that Davis could be used to put the pressure on a Cubs team that is highly susceptible to the stolen base, and he stands to be the lesser used portion of this pairing. 

On the other hand, there is Fowler, who is the unquestioned option in center for the Cubs. He is a vital part of the balance of the team and regained his hot bat towards the end of the NLCS. His .295 postseason OBP should continue to rise throughout the World Series. 

Advantage: Cubs

Right Field: Lonnie Chisenhall vs. Jason Heyward/Albert Almora Jr.

This is the oddest pairing in the series, simply because it should be a wash in favor of the Cubs. However, that is far from the case, as the offensive struggles of Jason Heyward have essentially banished him to bench to start the series. The rookie Almora Jr. will take over for the time being in right, although Heyward’s unsurpassed defensive abilities will surely see him factor into the late frames in most games. This leaves Chisenhall as the surer side of the right field matchup. He has become the everyday option at the position, despite platooning throughout most of the year. He could be susceptible to Travis Wood, Mike Montgomery and Aroldis Chapman out of the Cubs pen, but he’ll get enough at-bats against their three right-handed starters to offset it. Chisenhall hit .295 against righties this year.

Advantage: Indians

Designated Hitter: Carlos Santana vs. Kyle Schwarber

Santana is the team’s everyday leadoff hitter and is the rare power bat that is measured in his approach as well. He walked and struck out an even 99 times this year, while hitting 34 home runs and carrying a .366 OBP. He’s an important part of their balance, and will force the team to get creative in setting the table while in Wrigley Field. 

The biggest surprise of the series is the re-emergence of Schwarber, who has been out of action since the first game of the season with a pair of torn ligaments in his knee. He was a huge part of the Cubs offseason surge a year ago, setting the team’s franchise record for postseason home runs in the process. If he can make a quick adjustment back to Major League pitching, he could be the biggest x-factor in the series. He could also have a tough time adjusting on the fly against one of the game’s best pitching staffs as well. Time will tell.

Advantage: Indians, due to the ‘ifs’ surrounding what Schwarber will be.

Starting Pitching

It is a matchup of the best starting staffs in each league, although neither is in the exact form that made them such during the regular season. Corey Kluber, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks are all frontline Cy Young contenders, while Jake Arrieta won the honor last year. John Lackey is one of the most accomplish postseason pitchers of all-time, while Josh Tomlin has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the last month, carrying back into the regular season.

Both staffs will be utilized differently. With the exception of Kluber, Terry Francona uses his starters as a mechanism to hold off time before going to his stud-filled bullpen. Joe Maddon on the other hand still wields his starters as he has all season, carrying them as far as reason will allow before building his bridge to Aroldis Chapman.

The presence of Lester – owner of a 3-0 World Series record and two rings – is a big game advantage, even when paired against Kluber. Kyle Hendricks hasn’t pitched a ton of innings, but has only allowed a single run in two outings. While Arrieta and Lackey have been shaky of late, track record indicates that they still will have the advantage over Tomlin and whichever pairing of Trevor Bauer, Ryan Merrick or Danny Salazar that is deployed. With that being said, the Indians starters have overcome all odds to deliver strong performance thus far and have been statistically better than the Cubs staff (1.86 Indian starters ERA in 38 innings vs. 2.56 Cub starter ERA in 56 innings).

Advantage: Cubs, if only due to Lester

Bullpen

The Cleveland bullpen is the most decisive unit in this series, by far. In the majority of games, they should be treated with the importance of a starting staff, as they pitch a similar innings load as a collective. If they can continue to be the genre-defying, innings-eating, shutdown unit they have been throughout the playoffs, they can win it for the Indians. Andrew Miller is turning in a virtuoso performance for the ages, which has pundits questioning how a bullpen should be aligned going forward. Behind him, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen have been strikeout producing machines themselves. The late game trio has pitched 25 innings, while striking out 38 and allowing three runs total. Get the game into their hands, and it has had a predictably good outcome for Cleveland. The Cubs bullpen became alarmingly penetrable in the NLCS, allowing 16 hits and 10 walks over six games. This included a continued lessened performance from Chapman, who battled through his four appearances in the series. In a series where they will be pitted against a lineup that will regularly feature a bevy of switch hitters and alternating styles of talents at the plate, the Cubs bullpen will need to be on point. And that is a very questionable proposition currently.

Advantage: Indians

Manager: Terry Francona vs. Joe Maddon

This could be perhaps the best showdown of all in the series. Both are well in-tune with the capabilities of their respective rosters, and command them as well as any other managers in the game. Francona has been nearly perfect in the way that he has taken his troops to battle, with everything from the risk of giving Merrick his third career start mid-postseason run, to the way style in which he has utilized Miller thus far. Maddon has been his typical trusting self in utilizing his roster, which has led to a few flubs along the way but nothing that he has not been able to overcome by reliance on yet another talent pull from his wholly useful 25-man roster. It seems as if nothing is beyond repair in the Cubs reach. 

With this said, Francona has been in the managerial ‘zone’ so far, and is doing as well of a job in using his assets as has been seen in years. The ever-so slight edge goes to Tito for how well he has guided his troops so far.

Advantage: Indians

Intangibles

In a very evenly matched series, it could come directly down to counting the things that do not show up on the box score. Baserunning and bullpen matchup advantages could tell more of the story than marquee starting pitching pairings and potent lineup superstars. It also leans into why Francona has the advantage in chess piece placement in this series. The Cubs were the second-easiest team to run against in the regular season, while the Indians were the most efficient base stealing team in baseball. They also are the most successfully aggressive group in taking extra bases as well. This is an attribute that could be a major advantage for them, especially if Jason Heyward is not in right field as often due to his offensive woes. But in turn, forcing Heyward into the lineup also decreases the team’s offensive ability as well. 

In a game of inches and miles, the Indians seem able to create more miles than the Cubs can. This could prove to be an all-important element in a series of what should be tight games. In the series, Cleveland also holds advantages in the area of home field advantage. They were tied for the best home record in the American League and have not lost a game at Progressive Field since September 25th. Conversely, the Cubs actually become a better offense on the road, as they hit 29 more home runs on the road than they did at Wrigley Field. Despite that, the Indians still hit for a nearly 30 points higher team batting average at home and have pitched to 1.25 ERA at home and a .180 batting average against at home.

Advantage: Indians

Bottom Line

At the end, it is a series of deep teams that will be fueled by what are likely the most eager home crowds in World Series history. There is more anticipation between these two franchises than has ever faced off before, and the sense of urgency will be unmatched. With that said, the X’s and O’s of it all will tell the story and it could be a baseball game with substitutions that are more akin to hockey as both sides jockey for position.

The Cubs have a lot of good going for them, but the Indians are the hotter team that has more clicking and more upfront items in favor for them right now.

Final Advantage: Indians 7, Cubs 6  

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