Miami Dolphins ceiling and floor for 2023

The Miami Dolphins snapped a five-year playoff drought last season and head into 2023 with Super Bowl aspirations. Just how much they'll improve from their 9-8 mark last season remains up for debate, but with a high-powered offense and upgraded defense, there's plenty to be excited about for Miami fans.

Here's our best guess at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Dolphins in 2023.

Ceiling: 12-5

GM Chad Grier has shown aggressiveness in acquiring talent with trades for WR Tyreek Hill and OLB Bradley Chubb. This offseason, another All-Pro was added in CB Jalen Ramsey. With Ramsey and a full season of Chubb, the defense should limit the number of shootouts the Dolphins get into, making it easier for the offense to overwhelm the opposition.

Before their Week 10 bye, the Dolphins will face five teams that made the playoffs last season. But Miami also will get the Patriots twice (Weeks 2 and 8) before the bye, which could help build early momentum (complete schedule analysis here). Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa owns a 4-0 record against the Patriots and could extend his streak considering the disparity in talent between Miami and New England.

Miami's second half will be a true test of whether it is a legitimate championship contender. In their final three games, the Dolphins will play the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. However, if they play to their potential, they should win at least two games in that span. Even so, Miami's season will ultimately depend on Tagovailoa's health, as the team went 1-3 without him a season ago.

Floor: 9-8

Although the Dolphins have a roster capable of competing for a Super Bowl, their path won't be easy. Miami's 2023 opponents were 158-127-2 last season, making its schedule the second-most difficult in the league, per NFL Research. 

The Dolphins will have their work cut out for them early on and will be matched against several dynamic quarterbacks. To open the season, Miami will play at the Chargers, who have much to prove following an embarrassing playoff collapse against Jacksonville last season. In Week 9, Miami heads to Germany to take on the Chiefs, the Dolphins toughest assignment this season but even more challenging considering the team is 1-4 all time in international games.

While the aforementioned final stretch of games against Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo is winnable, those games are just as likely to be losses. Last season, Miami struggled after an 8-3 start, losing five straight, before beating the Jets and barely making the playoffs. The Dolphins might not be so fortunate this time around if they aren't on top of their game.